Bad Jobs = Good News For Stocks...Not So Fast.
Jeff Kikel • August 7, 2026
Key Takeaway: A weak jobs report just took a September rate hike off the table, but the risk worth watching is not the Fed. It is the yen carry trade, a massive borrow-cheap-in-Japan, buy-US-stocks bet that has quietly propped up this market and could unwind fast if Japan moves. Here is what it is and why it matters to your portfolio.
Two things landed this week that most headlines treated as unrelated. The jobs report came in ugly, and the Japanese yen sat near a 40-year low. On the show, Ron and I connected them, because together they point at a quiet risk that has been holding this market up, and one that most investors have never even heard of. Let me walk you through it.
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The yen carry trade explained in plain English: what it is, why it can rattle U.S. stocks when it unwinds, and what long-term investors should actually do about it.
Key Takeaways: About 66% of large-cap US equity funds have trailed the S&P 500 over the last three years. On this week’s Cents of Things, I explain how I think about that as a portfolio manager: an index core, a disciplined sleeve of individual names, and cash ready for the days the market hands you a gift. I manage money for real families, so I look at a week like this one through a simple lens: what changes how I build and hold portfolios, and what is just noise. Here is how I read it.
Cents of Things Episode 152
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For me Freedom Day occurred in July of 2022. After building multiple businesses and other passive income, I was able to sell my interest in my financial practice and also sell another business that I had been developing. At that point, I had a decision to make. What was I going to do for the rest of my life? For almost thirty years I had been working with people to help them reach retirement. Was I ready to quit? Not really.
One of the most difficult things for me was changing my mindset from Active to Passive Income. Growing up as a Gen Xer, the son of Baby Boomers, I was taught to go to school and work hard. That was the way I approached entrepreneurship. When I wasn’t making enough money from one business I would start another. The problem was that I had built a house of cards. At the peak I was typically working 70-80 hour weeks, typically waking up at 6am and working until 9 or 10 each night. I also worked both days on the weekends.
My parents told me that you need to get a good education, have a family, save money, and then retire around 66-67. That didn't sound good to me. I followed that prescription, helping others do the same, until I realized it wouldn’t work for me.