2026 Mid-Year Market Review: Did Our Predictions Hold Up?

Key Takeaways: At the midpoint of 2026, the S&P 500 sits near 7,482, up from 6,721 on December 17, 2025, a gain of roughly 11 percent in about seven months. In this mid-year review we grade our own December calls, score the big Wall Street price targets, and walk through which sectors are leading and lagging so far.

Most market predictions get made in January and quietly forgotten by summer. We do it differently. Twice a year we pull up the exact numbers and sector calls we made and check them against reality, out loud. If you want an honest scorecard instead of another confident guess, this mid-year review is for you.

Did the big banks get 2026 right?

Every January the major banks publish year-end S&P 500 targets, and every year the spread between them is enormous. Some houses came into 2026 cautious, and so far those cautious calls have looked too low as the market pushed higher.

We pay close attention to a small number of research shops we respect and treat much of the rest as noise. The lesson is not that any one bank is always right. It is that a wall of conflicting targets is not a plan, and following the most pessimistic voice would have kept you on the sidelines during a strong first half.

How did our own December predictions hold up?

Here is the part most shows skip. Back on December 17, 2025, with the S&P 500 at 6,721, we laid out a base case, a bull case, and a bear case for the year.

Today the index is around 7,482. That is more than 750 points higher, or about 11 percent, in roughly seven months. Honestly, that is faster than our base case expected. We did not think we would be up double digits by mid-year.

Being accountable means saying that plainly. We note what we got right, and we admit what surprised us, rather than rewriting the story after the fact.

Which sectors are winning at the midpoint of 2026?

The gains this year have not been evenly spread. A handful of areas have done the heavy lifting.

Biotech has been strong, including the broad biotech baskets. Defense and aerospace have held up well. Industrials have participated in the move. Select 5G and technology names have contributed. And clean energy has been a standout, which was not the consensus pick coming into the year.

The clean energy result is a good reminder that the most contrarian call on the board can end up leading the pack.

Which sectors are lagging?

Not everything has worked. Consumer discretionary has been softer, real estate has lagged, and the large scale pure AI infrastructure names have underperformed the broader market even as AI stays in every headline.

That gap between the story everyone is telling and where the money is actually being made is exactly why a mid-year check matters.

What are we watching for the rest of 2026?

Our views for the back half of the year have not changed much. We would rather stay disciplined than chase, and we will publish another full scorecard in December so you can hold us to it again. The point of a review like this is not to brag and not to panic. It is to keep score honestly so you can make calmer decisions.

Frequently asked questions

What was the S&P 500 doing at mid-year 2026?
Around 7,482, up from 6,721 on December 17, 2025, a gain of roughly 11 percent in about seven months.

Which sectors performed best in the first half of 2026?
On our scorecard the leaders included biotech, defense and aerospace, industrials, select 5G and technology names, and clean energy, which was the biggest surprise.

Which sectors lagged?
Consumer discretionary, real estate, and the large scale pure AI infrastructure names underperformed the broader market.

Do Wall Street year-end price targets matter?
They are worth knowing, but the range between banks is usually wide, and the most cautious targets would have kept you out of a strong first half. Treat them as one input, not a plan.

Should I change my portfolio based on a mid-year review?
A review is for perspective, not a signal to trade. Your own situation, timeline, and taxes matter more than any single call. Talk with your own licensed financial or tax professional before making changes.

When is the next update?
We will publish a full year-end scorecard in December 2026.

The Bottom Line

The first half of 2026 rewarded staying invested and being selective. The S&P 500 climbed from 6,721 to about 7,482, a handful of sectors did most of the work, and the loudest story in the market was not the biggest winner. If you want the honest, twice-a-year scorecard rather than one-way hype, subscribe to The Cents of Things and we will see you for the December review.

Source: per Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang's mid-year review on The Cents of Things (recorded July 2026), the S&P 500 stood at approximately 7,482, up from 6,721 on December 17, 2025.